Polymarket Signal Logger • Edge Calculator v2 • Updated in real time as markets resolve
| Market Question | Mkt Price | AI Price | Gap | Edge | AI Side | Confidence | Outcome | AI Result | Mkt Result | Scanned | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 30 above $190? | 0% | 50% | 50.0% | 20.00 | — | — | No | — | ✓ | Apr 3 | Apr 4 |
| XRP Up or Down - April 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET | 50% | 50% | 0.0% | 24.00 | — | — | Up | — | ✗ | Apr 3 | Apr 4 |
| Will CA Barracas Central vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw? | 35% | 57% | 23.0% | 24.00 | — | — | No | — | ✓ | Apr 2 | Apr 3 |
| Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5) | 26% | 50% | 24.0% | 20.00 | — | — | EC Bahia | — | ✗ | Apr 1 | Apr 2 |
| Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner | 81% | 50% | -30.5% | 21.00 | — | — | Team Liquid | — | ✗ | Apr 1 | Apr 2 |
| Dogecoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET | 50% | 50% | 0.0% | 29.00 | — | — | Down | — | ✗ | Apr 2 | Apr 2 |
Each market is scanned via the Polymarket Gamma API and scored using the Conestoga Edge Calculator v2. The scorer ingests four SentimentAlpha oracle signals (Narrative Momentum, Manipulation Guard, Convergence Matrix, Reputation Alpha) and computes an independent probability estimate. The “AI Side” is the direction the Edge Calculator favours when the gap between AI and market price exceeds a significance threshold. “Would Have Bet” flags appear when edge score + confidence criteria are met. Resolution data comes directly from Polymarket’s on-chain settlement.
AI Accuracy counts only markets where the Edge Calculator took a directional side (Yes or No), not markets where it had no opinion. Market Accuracy measures how often the market favourite (>50% implied probability) won. High Confidence filters for signals scored “high” by the v2 bet confidence tier.
This is a live, unedited backtest. No signals are removed or adjusted after the fact. Data refreshes every time the page loads.