Polymarket Signal Logger • Edge Calculator v2 • Updated in real time as markets resolve
| Market Question | Mkt Price | AI Price | Gap | Edge | AI Side | Confidence | Outcome | AI Result | Mkt Result | Scanned | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | 6% | 26% | 20.3% | 25.00 | Yes | low | No | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 8 | Apr 19 |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | 6% | 26% | 20.3% | 25.00 | Yes | low | No | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 8 | Apr 19 |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | 6% | 26% | 20.3% | 25.00 | Yes | low | No | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 8 | Apr 19 |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | 6% | 26% | 20.3% | 25.00 | Yes | low | No | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 8 | Apr 19 |
| Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in April 2026? CONTRARIAN | 0% | 1% | 0.9% | 63.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 9 | Apr 19 |
| Will TISZA win <42% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? CONTRARIAN | 10% | 2% | -8.0% | 66.00 | No | low | No | ✓ Correct | ✓ | Apr 9 | Apr 19 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 18? | 51% | 29% | -22.2% | 27.00 | No | low | Yes | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 13 | Apr 19 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 17? | 7% | 1% | -5.5% | 26.00 | — | low | Yes | — | ✗ | Apr 12 | Apr 18 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 17? | 25% | 25% | 0.0% | 19.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 13 | Apr 18 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? CONTRARIAN | 97% | 99% | 1.8% | 61.00 | — | low | Yes | — | ✓ | Apr 14 | Apr 18 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 16? | 26% | 31% | 5.0% | 25.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 12 | Apr 17 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 16? | 13% | 1% | -11.5% | 20.00 | No | low | Yes | ✗ Wrong | ✗ | Apr 13 | Apr 17 |
| Will Alan Bond win the NJ-11 special election? | 0% | 1% | 0.9% | 19.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 13 | Apr 17 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? CONTRARIAN | 50% | 55% | 5.3% | 38.00 | — | low | No | — | ✗ | Apr 7 | Apr 16 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | 16% | 1% | -14.7% | 33.00 | No | low | No | ✓ Correct | ✓ | Apr 6 | Apr 15 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? CONTRARIAN | 2% | 1% | -0.8% | 62.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 12 | Apr 15 |
| Will Maxime Beaudoin win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | 0% | 1% | 0.9% | 46.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 14 |
| Will Maxime Beaudoin win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | 0% | 1% | 0.9% | 46.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 14 |
| Will Maxime Beaudoin win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | 0% | 1% | 0.9% | 46.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 14 |
| Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? CONTRARIAN | 16% | 1% | -14.5% | 44.00 | No | low | No | ✓ Correct | ✓ | Apr 7 | Apr 14 |
| Will Peter Koubakis win the by-election for the seat of Scarborough Southwest in the House of Commons of Canada? | 0% | 1% | 0.7% | 36.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 9 | Apr 14 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? CONTRARIAN | 2% | 1% | -0.8% | 55.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 12 | Apr 14 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $4.50 Week of April 13 2026? | 100% | 76% | -23.7% | 21.00 | No | low | Yes | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 14 | Apr 14 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026? CONTRARIAN | 2% | 1% | -0.5% | 57.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 13 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026? CONTRARIAN | 2% | 1% | -0.5% | 57.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 13 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026? CONTRARIAN | 2% | 1% | -0.5% | 57.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 13 |
| Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | 0% | 1% | 0.6% | 48.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 13 |
| Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | 0% | 1% | 0.6% | 48.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 13 |
| Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | 0% | 1% | 0.6% | 48.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 13 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | 0% | 1% | 0.9% | 35.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 8 | Apr 13 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | 97% | 99% | 2.5% | 33.00 | — | low | Yes | — | ✓ | Apr 9 | Apr 13 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | 0% | 1% | 1.0% | 36.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 10 | Apr 13 |
| Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | 0% | 1% | 1.0% | 20.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 10 | Apr 13 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 12? | 100% | 99% | -1.3% | 46.00 | — | low | Yes | — | ✓ | Apr 11 | Apr 13 |
| Spread: AS Monaco FC (-1.5) | 28% | 28% | 0.0% | 12.00 | — | low | Paris FC | — | ✗ | Apr 8 | Apr 11 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8? | 2% | 1% | -1.4% | 15.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 6 | Apr 9 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8? | 2% | 1% | -1.4% | 15.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 6 | Apr 9 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8? | 2% | 1% | -1.4% | 15.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 6 | Apr 9 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 8? | 2% | 1% | -1.4% | 15.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 6 | Apr 9 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 8? | 51% | 49% | -1.3% | 26.00 | — | low | Up | — | ✗ | Apr 7 | Apr 9 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $135 Week of April 6 2026? | 100% | 75% | -25.0% | 47.00 | No | low | Yes | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 9 | Apr 9 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 7? CONTRARIAN | 3% | 1% | -2.2% | 39.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 8 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 7? CONTRARIAN | 3% | 1% | -2.2% | 39.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 8 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 7? CONTRARIAN | 3% | 1% | -2.2% | 39.00 | — | low | No | — | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 8 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026? CONTRARIAN | 96% | 83% | -13.0% | 64.00 | No | medium | Yes | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 7 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026? CONTRARIAN | 96% | 83% | -13.0% | 64.00 | No | medium | Yes | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 7 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026? CONTRARIAN | 96% | 83% | -13.0% | 64.00 | No | medium | Yes | ✗ Wrong | ✓ | Apr 5 | Apr 7 |
Each market is scanned via the Polymarket Gamma API and scored using the Conestoga Edge Calculator v2. The scorer ingests four SentimentAlpha oracle signals (Narrative Momentum, Manipulation Guard, Convergence Matrix, Reputation Alpha) and computes an independent probability estimate. The “AI Side” is the direction the Edge Calculator favours when the gap between AI and market price exceeds a significance threshold. “Would Have Bet” flags appear when edge score + confidence criteria are met. Resolution data comes directly from Polymarket’s on-chain settlement.
AI Accuracy counts only markets where the Edge Calculator took a directional side (Yes or No), not markets where it had no opinion. Market Accuracy measures how often the market favourite (>50% implied probability) won. High Confidence filters for signals scored “high” by the v2 bet confidence tier.
This is a live, unedited backtest. No signals are removed or adjusted after the fact. Data refreshes every time the page loads.